美国国家安全情报传递机制论析

作为世界上情报体系最为发达的国家，美国国家安全情报机制一直以来备受各方关注。九一一事件催生了美国情报体系全面而彻底的改革。经过十多年的努力，美国情报界实现了从机构林立的分散体系到由国家情报总监办公室领导的有机整体的重大转型。从总体机制来看，美国情报界现已形成情报机构一体化与任务一体化的双轮驱动体系，其情报传递网络不仅涵盖领导、协调、执行三个层级间的纵向传送，而且包括不同情报机构之间的横向协调，基本实现了情报整合与信息共享。美国国家情报总监办公室成为名副其实的美国情报界统领，其下设的反恐、反扩散、反情报和网络情报中心构成了美国国家安全情报分类传递机制的四大支柱。通过比较，四大分类传递机制中最为成熟的是反恐中心，其次是反情报与安全中心，再次是网络威胁情报整合中心，最后是反扩散中心。由于各类情报机制自身发展程度的不同，其改革过程中所面临的挑战也不一样。美国国家安全情报传递机制的改革“瓶颈”既有发展不足导致的结构性困境，也有外部安全环境变化带来的挑战。此外，特朗普政府上台后的一系列政策举措使得美国国家安全情报体系的发展方向呈现出新的态势。     

A Storm on the Horizon? “Twister” and the Implications of the Blockchain and Peer-to-Peer Social Networks for Online Violent Extremism

Abstract

“Twister,” developed by Miguel Freitas, is a social network platform centered around micro-blogging, much like Twitter. However, rather than relying on centralized servers owned and maintained by a single firm, Twister users operate a blockchain combined with distributed hash table (DHT)–like and BitTorrent-like protocols to both make posts and send private messages, and also to receive entries from other users. Twister’s raison d’etre is that it offers a social networking platform that cannot be censored and cannot itself censor. The software does not record the Internet Protocol addresses users use to access the service, nor does it notify other users of an account’s online/offline status. Growing adoption of blockchain services means that it is possible that the concept of decentralized social networks could become a norm. It is suggested in this article that blockchain-based peer-to-peer social networks present challenges to the current counterextremist practices for content removal and censorship. While there are methods to disrupt usage of blockchain-based peer-to-peer services, these approaches may have the net harm of curtailing bona fide use of legal and novel technologies. Given this opportunity cost, non-transitory online violent extremist content may need to be tolerated.     

Errors have been made,others will be blamed: Issue engagement and blame shifting in prime minister speeches during the economic crisis in Europe

This article investigates prime ministers’ communication strategies during the most recent economic crisis in Europe. It argues that when electoral risk is high but governments’ policy options are severely limited, prime ministers will use specific communication strategies to mitigate electoral risks. Two such communication strategies are analysed – issue engagement and blame shifting – by applying state-of-the-art quantitative text analysis methods on 5,553 speeches of prime ministers in nine European Union member states. Evidence is found for both strategies. Prime ministers talk about the economy more in response to both high (domestic) unemployment and low (domestic) gross domestic product growth. Furthermore, it is found that the (domestic) unemployment rate is the most consistent predictor of blame shifting: as the domestic unemployment rate goes up, this is followed by an increase in blame shifting towards banks, Greece and the Troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.     

The Elusive Pursuit of Incentive Systems: Research on the Cadre Management Regime in Post-Mao China

Journal of Chinese Political Science - This essay reviews recent scholarship on four key components of the post-Mao party state’s cadre management regime—nomenklatura system, cadre...     

Corruption Experience and Public Perceptions of Anti-corruption Crackdowns: Experimental Evidence from China

Journal of Chinese Political Science - Are citizens’ attitudes towards government’s effort to fight corruption primarily shaped by social information (such as public media and political...     

Bringing back the issues: Nigeria’s Afrocentric policy under President Olusegun Obasanjo

This article analyses President Obasanjo’s pursuit of Nigeria’s Afrocentric policy. While the general impression has been that Nigeria’s Afrocentric policy succeeded under the civilian administration of Obasanjo, this study contends that the record of performance is mixed. The administration’s diplomatic engagements in Africa produced a number of key upturns such as the deepening of democracy, peace and stability, and development through the framework of NEPAD. On the other hand, there were also major diplomatic setbacks. The study provides explanations for the mixed outcomes to draw important lessons that could aid the design of the policy in the post-Obasanjo era.     

Rhetoric and Praxis: Nigeria’s Africa Diplomacy and the Shaping of the African Union

Although Nigeria has always promoted multilateral diplomacy in the African context, the civilian administration of President Olusegun Obasanjo made it a cardinal objective of its Africa policy. Through his foreign policy speeches, President Obasanjo emphasised the readiness of his administration to play a leading role in African continental organisation – the African Union (AU). Using data collected through the secondary and interview methods, and thematic analysis, this study analyses Obasanjo’s diplomatic outing in the AU. While there were some encumbrances (such as the failure on occasion to make wider consultations within the AU framework and the absence of a well coordinated inter-ministerial approach to project Nigeria’s leadership in the AU), the paper contends that the administration’s diplomacy in the AU was successful. This showed in the role the administration played in shaping the structures that currently define the existence of the organisation. The transmutation of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) to AU, the recalibration of its peace and security architecture, and the funding of the organisation benefited immensely from Nigeria’s diplomacy under President Obasanjo.     

Introduction

ABSTRACT

This article argues for the analysis of the flow of ideological discourse through society within and across three distinct but interrelated levels: (1) the canonically defined, or macro level, (2) the intermediate or meso level of competitive political appeals, political relevant public discourse and cultural criticism, and (3) the everyday or micro level of conceptual use by non-experts. This differentiation among levels of ideological action and influence helps us to clarify the objects and appropriate methods of ideological analysis. Methods applied in specific cases must facilitate an effective focus on phenomena on one of these levels while still allowing recognition of the complex forms of direct and indirect conceptual influence and connection between the levels. The article also serves as an introduction to the volume, giving a brief account of the analysis and argument of each contribution.     

The range and limitation of sub-national regime variations under electoral authoritarianism: The case of Russia

ABSTRACT

As has been demonstrated by scholars, different levels of a polity may encompass different political regimes. In this study we examine variations in regional political regimes which have developed under Russia's system of electoral authoritarianism. Comparing the results of two cycles of regional assembly elections (2008–12 and 2013–17) we analyse and compare elections results and levels of electoral contestation in both the party list (PL) and single member district (SMD) contests. This allows us to identify the range of sub-national regime variations: ‘hegemonic authoritarian’, ‘inter-elite bargain authoritarian’, ‘clearly-competitive authoritarian’, and ‘moderately-competitive authoritarian’ regions. Approximately half of the regions demonstrate stable electoral patterns across both cycles. At the same time, none of the regions go beyond the authoritarian limitations imposed by the Russian regime. The variation is explained by a combination of structural and agency factors with a prevalence of the latter.     

Towards a democracy-centred ethics

Abstract

The core idea of this paper is that we can use the differences between democratic and undemocratic governments to illuminate ethical problems. Democratic values, rights and institutions lie between the most abstract considerations of ethics and meta-ethics and the most particularised decisions, outcomes and contexts. Hence, this paper argues, we can use the differences between democratic and undemocratic governments, as we best understand them, to structure our theoretical investigations, to test and organise our intuitions and ideas, and to explain and justify our philosophical conclusions. Specifically, as we will see, a democracy-centred approach to ethics can help us to distinguish liberal and democratic approaches to political morality in ways that reflect the varieties of democratic theory, and the importance of distinguishing democratic from undemocratic forms of liberalism.